So many have wasted many hours trying to make sense of the Denver Broncos’ 2022 season using “historical data”. The problem is, there is no data that matches this squad.
Embed from Getty ImagesI had a convo on Sunday before the Denver Broncos game against the Chiefs. And I was thrown the argument that the aggregate record of the three best defenses that had a bottom-3 offense in history existed in a number that the sample size mattered.
They also stated that their records were going to be astronomically better than the 2022 Denver Broncos because the Broncos have the worst offense ever. How the Broncos can have the worst offense ever when they don’t have the worst offense of 2022 is an idiotic take on it’s own but I degrees.
Below are the worst offenses by total yards per ESPN.com:
Let’s see if his argument that those teams were far and away more successful without a doubt and no research was needed to prove him right is true. I said it was ridiculous to make such a claim without research and his “historical data” (which he was unable to cite or give specifics on just “if you look at the historical data”) was irrelevant. Let us see if he had a single leg to stand on: (All stats and records are per Pro-Football-Reference.com)
Top-3 Defense/Bottom-3 Offense Aggregate Team Record from 2010-2021:
2021: n/a
2020: n/a
2019: n/a
2018: n/a
2017: n/a
2016: n/a
2015: n/a
2014: n/a
2013: n/a
2012: n/a
2011: n/a
2010: n/a
I’m stopping here. My point is two-fold. Never make blanket statements with zero research. Secondly, people need to stop trying to use “historical data” to explain this 2022 Broncos squad. Due to the injuries, mass changes, etc. this team is a true outlier.
Historical data means nothing more than trying to create a context for current events. You must learn from the past, but past success means almost nothing when it comes to future success. Historical data is useful, but it means nothing when it comes to what should happen, it only tells you what could happen. If you believe otherwise you have already lost every argument you will ever be involved in.
Embed from Getty ImagesCausation and correlation are not always synonymous. Just because you shave down the edges of the square peg to shove it in a round hole doesn’t change the fact that you shoved a square peg in a round hole. You didn’t solve the problem, you cheated your way to a false positive.
There always comes a time in historical data that a first comes around. It’s a novel concept I know but stick with me. No offense this bad has had a defense this good and vice versa. This 2022 Broncos squad is a first in many ways, but one above all others. How does a team become this lopsided? Simple, injuries. I know that’s not very exciting and is more boring than “Team X scored 35 points in 3.5 seconds while the Broncos haven’t scored that many in 35 blood moons.”
Embed from Getty ImagesI’m obviously being facetious but the premise remains, historical data means what you could have, not what you are entitled to. People can keep banging their head against a wall of irrelevant stats to try and justify their narrative. But the simple fact remains that this team is way to injured to be effective.
How do you run a complicated offense and dive deep in a playbook when four-out-of-five lineman have no more than 3 starts this season? How do you run a complex blocking scheme that requires after snap identification of the man you are blocking while running full speed sideways that requires you knowing exactly what the guy next to you is going to do on every single snap and against every single defensive front you will face each week? Not to mention 7 different running backs have taken double digit carries in a game. So no excuse why they might not know who is going where right?
You can’t do any of that, periodt. There is absolutely no way you can expect guys that only have between a few weeks to as little as a few days on a team to know an entire playbook. If you do, you are a disengenous and insufferable human being.
Embed from Getty ImagesHow any human, let alone so many that can’t throw a football with fully intact shoulder ligaments can say Russel Wilson’s shoulder injury doesn’t matter is befuddling to say the least. Let alone all the injuries around him to be “excuses”? Calling broken bones and torn ligaments “excuses” is one of the most asinine statements I have ever heard a human utter. The best any team in the table below can call themselves any better than mediocre. And they all have something in common.
Below is the “top”-5 most injured squads in the 2022 NFL season per Spotrac.com:
How can you see those numbers and the teams around the Denver Broncos and say that doesn’t matter? That it has to be deeper? I get pundits and experts have to find daily talking points and it seems most in this business are very bad at finding their own as they copy cat off each other. This is not an assumption, it’s a fact. I have had multiple professors teach me to literally rip off places like USA Today and The Athletic for talking points because it’s easier. They stated it didn’t matter if it was an original idea as long as it got “clicks” and “views” and you put the story in your own words. This is the problem with media today, it’s all about what’s sensational, not so much truthful or accurate.
The 2022 Denver Broncos have an easily discernible problem, it’s not the moronic claim that Russell Wilson is washed. It’s not even the more viable but overstated low hanging fruit of an inept Nathaniel Hackett offense. Three touchdowns by Russ and 4 total by Hackett and Co against the Kansas City Chiefs begs to differ on the latter though. Yes they lost the game, but if Russ finishes that game, I have every belief the Broncos leave Empower Field a Mile High.
Embed from Getty ImagesSo you can be the ones that bloviate about this irrelevant number or that one from NFL seasons past to try and cope with your fee-fees about this team not doing what you want them to do. Or you can accept the fact this season is lost to injuries and has been since the first month. I told you all exactly 31 days before this was published this o-line would not allow the Broncos to be successful.
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